When the stock market gets volatile, it's easy to get nervous about your investment portfolio.
The return of market volatility serves as a reminder that gains in the stock market are not the only component of a sound financial strategy. Investors have no control over markets, but they can control planning decisions concerning taxes, withdrawal sequences and even strategies for claiming Social Security.
Here are some top planning considerations when saving for retirement.
1. Making withdrawals in poor market conditions. Academic studies have shown that poor market conditions during the early years of retirement can do long-lasting harm. That's because new retirees are withdrawing money while the market is low, reducing the potential for portfolio growth in ensuing years.
Advisors are increasingly aware of this phenomenon, known as sequence-of-returns risk.
"The concern or risk is that you need to potentially sell investments when they are down in value. This helps highlight the sequence-of-returns risk," says Scott Thoma, principal for client needs research at Edward Jones in St. Louis.
He points out that market declines are a fact of investing, with a 10 percent decline occurring, once a year, on average. To weather poor markets, investors must be cognizant of their withdrawal rates. In addition, maintaining a balanced stock-and-bond portfolio and keeping a year's worth of expenses in cash often help investors avoid the trap of liquidating securities during market declines.
"Also, most withdrawal rate guidance assumes increases each year for inflation. Be flexible with your spending from year to year and don't automatically take a raise, especially if you don't have to," Thoma says.
In addition to monitoring spending, people may want to wait out a market decline or recession before retiring, says Joe M. Cox II, senior vice president and director of wealth advisory services at Webster Wealth Advisors in Wilton, Connecticut.
"Studies and modeling says it is hard to recover from a large impairment to capital early in retirement. So what can you do? A simple out-of-the-box idea is, don't retire in front of a recession. Instead, retire at the end of a recession – the start of a recovery. Recessions last about 18 months, and recoveries last anywhere from six to 10 years. This gives the new retiree time to settle into their new spending pattern and optimize their portfolio risk level for the needed withdrawals," he says.
2. Underestimating expenses in retirement. Although the paycheck from work goes away in retirement, most people don't like downsizing their lifestyle. Also, income sources such as Social Security and required minimum distributions from qualified retirement accounts are taxable.
"People tend to underestimate what they spend. Often, one-time expenses turn into another one-time expense," says Leslie Thompson, managing principal at Spectrum Management Group in Indianapolis.
She suggests using a free or inexpensive program to begin tracking expenses before retirement to get a sense of actual spending.
"Since most people are not tax experts, the likelihood of underestimating taxes is high. Most do not realize that taxes need to be paid on non-Roth 401(k) distributions and that for most, Social Security will be taxed. When you combine this with Medicare surtax on investment income, taxes can still be significant," she says.
Chris Kichurchak, vice president of client relations at Strategic Wealth Partners in Independence, Ohio, says a financial plan should illustrate potential for failure. This includes areas in which investors should be alert for various categories of income and spending.
"A proper plan tests for issues such as tax rate increases, minimal Social Security adjustments, a bear market during the first year of retirement, underperforming investments and maximum annual spending limitations. These tests will help a retiree understand potential threats to their retirement," he says.
3. Planning for a long life expectancy. One income stream that nearly all retirees have in common is Social Security. Unlike life insurance, which is a safeguard against an early death, Social Security offers protection against outliving one's investments.
However, the majority of Americans claim their benefits earlier than full retirement age, meaning their Social Security payments are always less than the full amount to which they would be entitled.
"There are several factors that should be considered before selecting the optimal date to begin benefits. Your health status, life expectancy, need for income, retirement date and how concerned you are about running out of money in your lifetime should all be considerations in determining the timing of your benefits," says Rich Paul, founder and president of Richard W. Paul & Associates in Novi, Michigan.
Advisors often counsel clients to wait until full retirement age before claiming Social Security. In addition, married couples may still use certain claiming strategies, even though Congress recently ended most people's use of the file-and-suspend practice.
Keith Reiland, manager of private client accounts at Jensen Investment Management in Portland, Oregon, says delaying benefits may also increase a widowed spouse's monthly paycheck.
"For married couples that wait, one of the key advantages is the survivor benefit, which can be more advantageous if the higher-earning spouse waits, making the lower-earning spouse eligible to receive 100 percent of the monthly benefit after the higher-earning spouse passes," he says.
"Additionally, spousal benefits are in place for both married and divorced couples, which allow for a 50 percent claim on the spouse's benefit, provided they've reached full retirement age and claimed," Reiland says. He notes that divorced couples don't have to initiate a claim for the other spouse to apply for benefits if they have been divorced for at least two years.
4. Protecting your investments from market volatility. The early weeks of the year brought the spotlight back to sharp downside trading. Despite the whipsaw action, or perhaps because of it, investors must construct portfolios to withstand various market conditions. In addition, managing emotions around volatile markets is equally important.
"Try not to get lured into timing the markets," says James Nichols, head of the customer solutions group at Voya Financial in Windsor, Connecticut.
"The best protection against volatile markets is a properly diversified portfolio. There are many micro and macro factors that can impact your investments, that it's impossible to predict all of them. Even then, you have to be right twice: when to buy and when to sell. It's best to build your financial and investment plan by relying on relatively safe longer-term trends."
Inflation has been hovering around 2 percent, and interest rates will remain at historic lows even if the Federal Reserve puts more increases in place this year, Nichols says. Investors should remember that stocks tend to generate higher returns than bonds, meaning equity exposure is necessary to outpace inflation over the long haul.
Timothy McGrath, founding partner of Riverpoint Wealth Management in Chicago, says investors must avert their attention from short-term market movements. Advisors, too, should understand how to calm client emotions during market turmoil.
"You need to focus on the long term. Stock markets are going to be volatile, so it's important to be realistic in your expectations for investment returns. Diversification across the board is a good idea. Telling a client that market change happens and that a portfolio will, at times, decrease in value, whether you like it or not, is key to setting expectations and getting clients to look at their overall goals and values," McGrath says.
5. Creating enough income for retirement. For many retirees, the biggest challenge is coming up with enough money to pay for living expenses. An ever-shrinking number of people have corporate pensions, once a key component of many retirees' income streams. That means investment portfolios must be carefully shepherded.
"With interest rates still near historic lows, income is tough to come by," says Lamar Villere, co-portfolio manager at Villere & Co. in New Orleans. He says investors are not necessarily best served by adhering to certain pieces of conventional wisdom.
"We take a total portfolio view. There's no crime in selling appreciated stock and paying long-term capital gains taxes. The orthodoxy of holding every share of stock and only spending bond coupons and stock dividends can deprive investors of some very attractive opportunities. Ignoring growing companies, like those we invest in, simply because they're reinvesting in their growing businesses, rather than paying dividends, can deprive investors' portfolios of critical gains," Villere says.
Dana Vosburgh, director of family wealth management at Manning & Napier in Fairport, New York, emphasizes the balance between generating investment income and not outliving one's money.
"Creating a portfolio of long-term, high-quality fixed-income securities – and perhaps real estate investment trusts and high-dividend-paying stocks – might generate income to help fund current expenses, but it might not be able to generate the growth necessary to meet your inflation-adjusted needs over a lifetime," he says.
The current environment poses significant challenges due to the historically low interest rates. To chase higher yields, many investors find themselves owning longer-term bonds. However, Vosburgh says, the longer the bond, the greater the sensitivity to changes in interest rates. As rates move up, bond values decline.
"Clearly this is not what most people have in mind for seemingly safe bond investments," says Vosburgh, who says it's important for investors to be nimble enough to take advantage of areas in the market that can provide greater income potential.
"Furthermore, relying on income-producing securities is only half of the picture. Using a total return approach – withdrawing growth in assets, as well as income, for funding retirement – can provide greater flexibility, particularly in the current environment," he says. - money.usnews
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