Brexit: An Unlikely Scenario

UNFOLDING in Western mainstream media are reports of immense regret by the British young over the win by the “Leave” group through a slim majority. 

Britain, if the decision of the vote is faithfully executed, will leave the European Union (EU). 

However, given the initial reaction of one of the leading personalities of this group, Boris Johnson the Conservative ex-mayor of London, Britain exiting the EU (Brexit) is not a foregone conclusion. 

And, too, although he has announced his resignation, the prime minister who instigated the referendum in the first place, is not immediately triggering the Treaty of Lisbon clause to begin the withdrawal procedure. 

That some notable Brexiters are not protesting is a sign that some are having cold feet. Furthermore, the result of the referendum is not binding on the British Parliament, it is more advisory. 

The air of uncertainty after the assault on the market and the British currency — a clear indication that the money men are unhappy with Brexit — people are taking the advice of negative repercussions seriously. Of course, too, there is the obvious disadvantages that the young are loudly lamenting such as the resulting limit to their freedom of movement, their ability to seek employment and live anywhere in the nearly 30 member countries of the EU. 

But Brexit was won on the platform of restricting the inward migration of foreigners, especially the current influx of Middle Eastern refugees, whom the Brits were being forced to accept as a shared EU responsibility. 

Necessarily, the British far right is ecstatic and Nigel Farage, a leader of the right wing UK Independence Party is urging an immediate pull-out. 

On the international front, Brexit is viewed by the left wing and peaceniks as a positive move. Viewing Britain as the United States’ Trojan horse they perceive a weakening of US hegemony over the EU and with that a possible EU détente with Russia. 

Unfortunately, the peace dividend is not a priority with the financial markets and the neo-conservative agenda. 

As soon as the referendum brought news of Brexit, the pound plunged and the market shook, but note that the market is about big money sentiments. 

The US and European economies have had many years since the 2008 crash but there is a wilful neglect of correcting the economic fundamentals. Brexit alone should not bring the financial world to an end, but a domino effect — with France and Netherlands calling for a referendum — and the break-up of the EU could change the economic dynamics of the world. 

China’s economic dominance will arrive faster than anticipated. Given its foreign policies, the developing world should see a friendlier economic environment as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank gains ascendancy over such US-dominated institutions as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. 

However, Brexit is unlikely, if it threatens to destroy the European bloc. In fact, signs are that the stage is being set for non-exit. - NST