This Way To Wealth: Your Most Important Financial Resolution For 2017

Now that 2016 is behind us, it’s time to think about which financial resolutions might benefit you the most in 2017.

I’ve said this before, but I’m going to say it again because it’s so important. The most important thing you can do for your portfolio as a long-term investor is to automate your investment process through a systematic investment plan. This is especially important for younger investors who have time on their side. Let’s take a closer look at the systematic investment plan and why it can be of such great benefit to you.

A systematic investment plan (SIP) is nothing more than investing a small amount of money on a pre-set date every month into a specific mutual fund or funds. A systematic investment plan works best with a mutual fund or funds that have higher volatility. Thus, it tends to work better with stock funds than it does with bond funds, since stock funds tend to be more volatile than bond funds.

Let’s say for example that you are investing $500 per month and the value of the stock mutual fund during the month of your 1st investment was $20 per share. In that 1st month he would’ve purchased 25 shares. Let’s assume during the following four months that the mutual fund share price went to $10, then $13, then $20 and finally $25 per share. By investing $500 per month into each of these five months, you would have purchased 158.5 shares. This compares with investing the entire $2,500 upfront at $20 per share in which case you would have purchased 125 shares.

The only time a systematic investment plan would work to your disadvantage is if the stock market did nothing but rise steadily during your investment. You wouldn’t be unhappy, but you would have been better off investing all the money up front. However, in real life, the market going straight up rarely happens.

I believe the real secret to the systematic investment plan is setting it up to happen automatically without you having to make a decision each month whether or not it’s a good time to invest. Setting up such a systematic investment plan is easy to establish between a mutual fund company and your checking or money market account at your bank.

The secret here is to take the human emotions out of the investment process. A study by the financial institution, Blackrock, showed that between 1966 and 2015, the S&P 500 index (an unmanaged index of large-cap stocks) had an average annual return of 8.19%. During that same time frame, the average investor earned 2.11%.

So while the secret to successful investing is buying low and selling high, human emotions tend to lead us to do just the opposite. We want to buy investments when we’re happy about the market (a higher market) and we want to sell when we’re unhappy with the market (a lower market). If you follow a systematic investment plan, you can take this human emotion out of the equation, and that will tend to work in your favor over the long term.

So my number one financial resolution recommendation for 2017 is to establish a systematic investment plan for yourself and stick with it. You always have the flexibility of increasing or decreasing your monthly investment or suspending the plan if circumstances require it. Your financial advisor can help you implement your systematic investment plan and the best time to start the plan is now. - Journal Online

Asian Investors Becoming More Conservative

The latest survey from global research and consulting firm Cerulli Associates (Cerulli) reveals that Asia ex-Japan retail investors of all age groups and wealth tiers have become more conservative in 2016 compared to 2015.  

The Cerulli Report – Asian Wealth Management 2016, which the survey was part of, notes that Asia ex-Japan retail investors have become less patient in their investment horizons. According to the survey, the proportion of respondents with an investment horizon of three years or less rose 48.4% in 2016, from the 39.1% seen in the 2015 survey, mainly as a result of unsettled market conditions.

Overall, Asia ex-Japan investors have higher cash holdings in 2016 compared to in 2015. Investors in Asian markets, with India being the exception, pared down their exposure to unit trusts, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds.

Indian investors apparently switched to investing more in managed funds at the expense of investment properties. Also, Hong Kong investors reduced their exposure to investment properties due to prices falling steeply in recent years, and were seen to show increased interest in directly held bond investments.

In addition, the shift to alternatives from other asset classes has been muted for the past year. The survey reveals China is the only country that showed a more than one percentage-point uptick in holdings in the asset class between the 2015 and 2016 surveys.

This is attributed to the types of alternative products available in China, Cerulli notes – which are unlike those available in Singapore. Alternatives tend to be in the form of structured products in China, whereas in Singapore, they are often more conventional liquid alternative funds. Allocations to alternatives in Singapore remained steady over the period, according to the report, helped by their availability to lower-wealth-tier investors.

The survey also discovered that funds-of-funds managed by foreign asset managers have become popular in Taiwan, as they oversee seven of the top ten funds-of-funds in terms of inflows year-to-date July 2016. Taiwanese investors are very keen for international exposure as this provides foreign asset managers with the opportunity to leverage their reputation and expertise to make greater inroads onshore, Cerulli believes.

The research and consulting firm also notes that it will be harder for smaller, boutique foreign asset managers with niche investment products to enter the Taiwanese market due to the island-state’s Financial Supervisory Commission continuing to tighten regulations on the offshore fund space. This might have an effect on the diversity of products available to Taiwanese investors, and Cerulli notes that it will be ideal for offshore and onshore fund management to co-exist in order to prevent a potential stifling of further product innovation. - asisasset

Investors Turn to Alternative Assets as Yields Fall

Investors around the world are getting creative as they hunt for yield in a low or even negative interest-rate environment that has rendered investment returns increasingly hard to come by.

A preferred tactic is emerging: targeting alternative assets.

Simon Smiles, chief investment officer for ultra-high net worth at UBS Wealth Management, which manages around $2 trillion in assets, said: “Negative rates are encouraging investors to go further afield."

Among his firm’s clients, he said, that means increased interest in alternative investments, such as private equity, real estate, infrastructure, private debt and hedge funds.

Greater interest in alternatives is also seen in the results of a recent survey by Bank of New York Mellon. More than one-third of investors surveyed said they would increase allocations to alternative investments; six percent said they would slightly decrease it.

In September, UBS said that family offices globally increased their allocations to private equity and real estate in 2016. The family offices increased their holdings of private-equity investments by 2.3 percentage points to 22.1% and their direct real-estate holdings by 0.2 percentage points to 11.5%.

Private debt and infrastructure markets are another area grabbing investors’ attention. French lender Natixis is looking to raise $1 billion to invest in debt backed by real estate, infrastructure debt and airplanes around the world.

Like government and corporate bonds, loans on these assets can provide predictable cash flows, says Laurent Belouze, head of private-debt real assets at the bank.

Dominique Senequier, the founder of Ardian, a Paris-based manager of private-equity and infrastructure funds, says current rates are driving more investors into private equity and also into infrastructure and real estate, where they can receive annual yields.

Ardian’s investors include sovereign-wealth funds, pension funds and insurance companies seeking to boost returns. The French firm is currently raising its first real-estate fund, following in the footsteps of US private-equity giants Blackstone Group, Carlyle Group and KKR, which are also managers of large real-estate funds.

Sovereign-wealth funds are increasing their exposure to private equity and real estate, according to research company Preqin. Some 55% of sovereign-wealth funds are investing in private equity in 2016, up from 47% in 2015, while 62% are investing in real estate, up from 59%, according to Preqin. By contrast, the percentage of sovereign-wealth funds investing in fixed income declined to 82% this year from 86% last year.

Hedge funds, meanwhile, which collectively manage almost $3 trillion globally, are struggling to come to terms with the low and negative rate environment. Many are finding it difficult to post superior returns, which makes it difficult to justify the high fees management charges.

Investors withdrew a net $23.3 billion from hedge funds in the first half of this year, according to Hedge Fund Research. That puts the industry on track for its first year of outflows since 2009.

Low bond yields have also pushed investor money into stocks, which hedge funds find challenging in today’s volatile markets. Many actively pick stocks and have been unsettled by huge flows of money that, by contrast, often fail to discriminate between good and bad companies.

James Inglis-Jones, fund manager at Liontrust Asset Management, said: “The negative-interest-rate environment has created a more challenging backdrop for hedge funds."

When stocks largely move in the same direction, as they have lately, he added, it can be harder for managers to beat their market benchmarks. Betting on falling stock prices, meanwhile, a process known as shorting, has become more expensive due to zero or negative interest rates, he says. Hedge funds borrow stocks to sell, but now earn no interest on the cash they receive, he explains.

Problems in the hedge-fund industry are contributing to a massive flow of money into private equity, which could cause excess competition and lower returns, says Simon Borrows, chief executive of 3i Group, a London-based private-equity firm. The squeeze on private-equity returns could result as the inflows chase the same opportunities, making it tougher to outperform.

In 2015, private-equity firms world-wide had a record $1.3 trillion of “dry powder” – a term that means the amount of money available to invest – according to Bain & Co.

The dry powder build-up, Borrows says, “could leave investors with problematic outcomes including disappointing returns”. - efinancialnews

Don't Ignore the Threat of Another Market Tantrum

Jeff Knight looks at why market tantrums are the greatest risk management challenge facing investors today - and three ways to help protect your portfolio.

On September 9, following more than 40 trading days where it failed to make a full percentage point move in either direction, the S&P 500 Index dropped by nearly 2.5%. On the same day, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond rose from 1.60% to 1.68%, a loss of roughly 0.7% in price terms. Commodities fell by several percentage points. REITs lost almost 4%, and the list goes on. September 9 was a painful day for concentrated and diversified portfolios alike. While the damage was softened, if not reversed, for most asset classes by the end of the month, the pattern of performance that day should be noted, because it represents the most insidious risk management challenge facing investors today. Specifically, how can we protect our portfolio values if all asset classes decline at the same time, particularly if these declines become more significant or more durable?

Consider the likely source of the financial market's vulnerability to simultaneous declines. Nearly every major asset class has been increasing in value since the end of the financial crisis

Prices of most asset classes have steadily increased since the financial crisis

Asset class performance (annualized): 03/09/09 to 09/30/16
(Source: Bloomberg and Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC)

The link between monetary policy and previous tantrums

This price appreciation is a consequence of a global monetary policy designed to produce this very outcome. If low rates and quantitative easing can produce a rally in financial assets, the theory goes, then a wealth effect cannot be far behind once investors contemplate their portfolio gains. But we should note that this policy-driven windfall has a darker side. If the outside agent (monetary policy) that has washed over all of the asset classes in a positive way should change, then we should not be surprised if its removal has an opposite and negative effect.

We have seen this pattern before. The chart below plots the average performance of a variety of asset classes across four distinct episodes of market volatility. Each of these episodes was sparked by an inflection in monetary policy, beginning with the taper tantrum of 2013. We see a meaningful cause-and-effect pattern of these tantrum environments. The cause has been a hawkish inflection of monetary policy, while the effect has been simultaneous declines across asset classes.

Asset class performance during tantrums

(Source: Bloomberg and Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC)

Investors should plan for this risk management challenge now

Central banks appropriately regard their current monetary stance as reflective of special, almost emergency circumstances. This mindset sets the stage for eventual "normalization" of monetary policy, which should concern any investor who has seen the previous chart. The current "emergency" stance of monetary policy has been in place for quite a long time, making it increasingly difficult to view the measures as appropriate, given that the financial crisis itself ceased to be an emergency long ago. Also, the real world - as opposed to the financial market - benefit of these policies is difficult to detect. Given that there are winners and losers from these aggressive monetary policies, we would expect that a lack of real world response to these policies might eventually cause a shift in the overall policy recipe. Even without any significant improvement in economic data, the Federal Reserve seems to be deepening its resolve to continue with gradual rate normalization. Finally, the price inflation that has already occurred has, in most cases, outpaced any improvement in underlying intrinsic value for the world's asset classes. So some of the gains have come directly at the expense of future returns, meaning that future returns are likely to be lower than returns of the recent past.

The September 2016 tantrum is also noteworthy because the triggers were not actions, but merely words. For example, on September 9, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, observed that "a reasonable case can be made" for policy normalization. A well-known money manager added to anxieties that day by warning that the Federal Reserve might raise rates solely to counter the reputation that such moves don't take place if the markets aren't expecting them. The market reaction reveals an edginess on the part of investors that suggests even a small trigger can incite a relapse into these volatile conditions. Checking the fourth-quarter calendar, we see some potentially large triggers, including a U.S. presidential election, the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting and several key votes across Europe.

Defending your portfolio from tantrum risk

Dealing with this risk management challenge will be difficult in the presence of a more significant or durable tantrum. We suggest three portfolio adjustments:

1) Develop a plan to reduce risk if the prospect of a material tantrum arises. Two conditions would suffice to trigger the need for risk reduction. The first would be a decline in bond yields to a level where their diversifying potential is severely compromised. As long as bonds are reasonably priced, they should help to stabilize a portfolio through a protracted tantrum episode. Should yields fall below a fair value range, however, we would acknowledge the need to reduce risky asset positions. The other condition would be a clear-cut catalyst for monetary tightening, like a sequence of stronger-than-expected economic data.

2) Search for an expanded palette of diversifiers. Despite their recent struggles, we continue to advocate the incorporation of liquid alternatives or other investments with low correlation to traditional markets into overall portfolio strategy.

3) Identify hedging positions that may help offset simultaneous declines across asset classes. Some positions that would have been helpful in past tantrum episodes include long positions in volatility and the U.S. dollar exchange rate and put option protection for volatile equity positions. Each of these hedging positions should be evaluated in the context of its carrying cost. - seeking alpha

By Jeffrey L. Knight, Global Head of Investment Solutions and Co-Head of Global Asset Allocation

Diversification is the Best Approach in Uncertain Times

It seems that we live in a time when outcomes are only good or bad, heads or tails, yes or no. This is what mathematicians call binary outcomes.

In the battle against state capture, the outcome for our country will either be great or terrible; it’s hard to see a middle-of-the-road scenario in the near future. Similarly, the credit ratings agencies will deliver their verdict on our economic future by the end of the year. A positive announcement will be well received by the markets, whereas people will probably panic if we are downgraded. How do investors make rational decisions in this binary world?

Few investors can consistently make money by following an investment strategy that is based on trying to predict the future. This is called market timing, and it is an expensive way to invest your capital. First, you must be able to predict the outcome accurately – for example, the verdict of the ratings agencies on economy, or whether the British electorate will vote to leave the European Union. Currently, the verdict of the ratings agencies might seem obvious, but then so was the Brexit vote and look what happened there.

Second, you must be able to predict how other investors will react to the news. Let’s consider the aftermath of the Brexit vote. Although the London stock market fell initially, it has been on a strong upward trend since and is more than 15 percent higher than it was 12 months ago.

If you decide to sell your shares in anticipation of a ratings downgrade, because you are concerned that the stock market will collapse, you might be making a huge mistake. The most recent comparable country to study is Brazil, which was downgraded in February, but has seen its stock market jump by nearly 40 percent since. It is higher than it was a year ago, so investors who sold in the months before the downgrade are really losing out.

Who can say what will happen to our market and the rand if we are downgraded? It would be foolish to assume that the impact on the market will be negative.

In these circumstances, where the outcome of potentially significant political and economic events is so uncertain, it does not make sense to be too specific in your investment planning; instead, you should aim to spread your risk as much as possible, to ensure that portions of your capital will rise even if events don’t pan out the way you thought they would.

This means you should diversify by investing in a range of asset classes, including cash, bonds, listed property and shares. If the downturn does not materialise and markets rise, your investments in shares and listed property will rise.

It also makes sense to diversify across different countries and currencies. If you have most of your assets in rands, you should consider increasing your allocation to foreign investments. However, you should do this carefully and not in one batch.

I am not too concerned about owning a range of offshore currencies. If you buy a unit trust fund that invests in a portfolio of global investments, it will be denominated in a particular currency – for example, United States dollars – but this does not mean that the entire portfolio will be invested in the US; it will also be exposed to European, Japanese and other investments.

When you are investing at a time of market volatility, when the price can move dramatically within a few days, it makes sense to spread out the purchase (phase it in) over time, to mitigate your losses if you buy just before a major fall in the price. Starting a new investment and then immediately losing value can set you back a number of years. I buy foreign exchange in batches – preferably, at least three batches over a number of months.

Banks generally charge higher fees on foreign exchange transactions when you transact in smaller amounts, so you should aim to make the amounts as large as possible.

Don’t be too concerned about making major changes to your investments when political and economic events become media sensations; the hype is never good for rational investor behaviour. - IOL

Make Your Gold Purchase Count this Diwali, but No Jewellery Please!

Dhanteras and Diwali – India’s most eagerly-awaited festivals – are around the corner, giving us the opportunity to indulge in various pleasures such as sweets, shopping, socialising, gifting, and most of all – buying gold. 

The tradition of buying gold during Diwali has continued over thousands of years, and for all the right reasons. The yellow metal has delivered healthy returns over the long term. Moreover, it has provided essential financial security during trying times. 

This along with a timeless charm has made gold popular amongst the masses. 

An endorsement by tradition is just what is needed for buyers to rush into purchasing gold. In their eagerness, buyers frequently splurge on gold jewellery by convincing themselves that they are investing rather than spending, since the value of the ornaments is likely to increase in the future. While the justification isn’t entirely incorrect, it lacks some important considerations. 

Gold jewellery – a dull investment option 

Buying gold jewellery should not be confused with investing in gold. While gold jewellery is bought and used for its aesthetic value, it’s ineffective as an investment option. This is because of the loss in value on resale. The making charges on gold jewellery, which typically range between 6-14 per cent of the cost of gold (and may go as high as 25 percent in case of special designs) are irrecoverable. 

In this context, one may feel that gold coins and bars are better suited for investment. However, it should be noted that purchase of gold coins and bars comes at a significant premium of about 5-15 per cent over the price of gold (the lower the denomination of the coins and bars, the higher is the premium). This premium is irrecoverable on sale. 

Smarter ways to invest in gold 

Increasing awareness on the drawbacks of physical gold as an investment option has made people switch to gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) and sovereign gold bonds – the smarter ways of investing in gold. 

Gold ETFs are mutual funds that invest in physical gold. Each unit of a gold ETF represents 1 unit (or in some cases 0.5 units) of gold. Investors in gold ETFs do not bear making charges associated with physical gold. 

Moreover, gold ETFs are traded on the exchange at the prevailing market price of physical gold, which implies that investors can buy or sell their holdings at prices that are close to the market price, without worrying about paying a significant premium on purchase or selling at a discount. 

Sovereign gold bonds are government-backed securities denominated in grams of gold. Investors in sovereign gold bonds are assured of the market price of gold at the time of purchase and redemption. 

Gold ETFs vs. sovereign gold bonds 

At the outset, gold ETFs and sovereign gold bonds may seem similar. However, there are a few differences which are highlighted below:

Mathematically, sovereign gold bonds may seem more rewarding than gold ETFs; however, investors need to consider other factors such as: 

Upshot 

Gold is a safe haven asset, which makes it an effective portfolio diversifier. It’s thus prudent to allocate 10-15 percent of your portfolio investments to gold; Please consult your financial advisor before taking any asset allocation related decisions. It’s rational to seek higher returns within the same asset class. 

However, the potential to earn higher returns should be evaluated in the context of other important considerations. Liquidity is a key factor that should be considered while making any investment. Investors should be able to encash their holdings at any time without compromising on the value. 

Easy availability is another important consideration. The investment instrument should be easily available so that investors are able to deploy their funds without any delay. In these aspects, gold ETFs are better than sovereign gold bonds. - ET

A Fool and His Money

As the saying of our title goes, so goes the world in assessing stereotypical gold investors. More commonly, their approach is considered not only “old-fashioned,” but also likely to be without merit, as Gold is a non-yielding asset and at times even regarded as some sort of senseless doomsday allocation choice. 

It is not today’s objective to debunk all aspects brought forward by the critics, but instead to approach the topic from a purely factual point of view — recognizing that there is something going on “under the hood” that may silence the general opinion (as above) and mainstream media still favoring the most appreciated assets available in today’s market environment.

With aggregate gold holdings by the world’s countries and international organizations maintained over the past 15+ years (at approximately 30k tonnes), some nations continue to be engaged in an aggressive “catch-up” accumulation; for example, China and Russia have increased their gold reserves from 395 to 1823 tonnes and 423 to 1423 tonnes, respectively. At the same time, other major central banks/countries have allowed gold, when measured as a reserve asset held in proportion relative to their foreign exchange (FX) holdings, to increase materially — the U.S. from 55 percent to 76 percent, and “Euroland” from 28 percent to 57 percent.

It may be easy to “poke a hole” in our logic, since the price of gold has increased materially over recent years and because the U.S. and Germany (as the world’s largest holders in gold) have not been increasing and/or decreasing their allocation in absolute terms. However, the flipside of this argument is that gold, even at record prices seen last in 2013, was not “spent down” by policymakers, with the exception of a seemingly delusional Bank of England (BoE) that made the decision to cut its exposure nearly in half from 588 tonnes in 2000 to 313 tonnes today — a move that was highly criticized, especially given the average sales price of $275/oz at the time (vs. today at $1326/oz).

A new approach of how to evaluate today’s price of gold is not only to include aspects of “usage” by Central Banks, but also the notion that the world will continue to be stuck in a zero-rate (or negative-yield) environment for some time to come. Whereas on one hand policymakers have the benefit of monetizing their gold holdings as a recognized reserve asset (unlike other precious metals), on the other hand the argument of a non-yielding asset becomes less relevant due to the dilemma in bond markets.

There is a simple conclusion to the above provided analysis and background: an asset that nations and their central banks want, or even regret to have sold (BoE), is an asset that will very likely stay in demand. With a gold market that has been “tight” from a supply and demand perspective over the past years, gold should become more valuable. Before one parts from his or her money (especially when held in a denomination that has weathered the test of time), it should first be considered who the bigger fool may be today – the investor buying or selling gold?

For what it is worth: In support of our argument that gold may be more valuable than the current price and media suggests, it is at least anecdotally important to note that the German Bundesbank continues with a major project to bring gold home from “offshore” storage locations, predominantly in Paris and New York. - wealthmanagement